Cantor CEO: 'Off the fiscal cliff we go'

Part of complete coverage on

By Ramy Inocencio, for CNN

January 25, 2013 -- Updated 1453 GMT (2253 HKT)

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• "U.S. fiscal cliff still coming" in form of failure to raise debt ceiling - Cantor Fitzgerald CEO


• More than 25% of CEOs feel world economy will get worse in 2013, says PwC survey


• U.S. House of Representatives passed short-term debt ceiling increase Jan. 23


• Lutnick: "Dumb lending" caused 2008 credit crisis

Hong Kong (CNN) -- The world thought the U.S. fiscal cliff deadline was December 31, but "the fiscal cliff is (still) coming", says Howard Lutnick, CEO of global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald.

"You're going to watch the U.S. do crazy, crazy things this year," Lutnick told CNN's Richard Quest at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "The Republican Party that was elected to control Congress... (is) going to cross their arms and they are not going to raise the debt ceiling ultimately unless they get severe spending cuts, and the Obama administration is not going to give it to them."

If Congress fails to act, the U.S. and the world economy will have a "dreadful" 2013, Lutnick said.

Following this week's PricewaterhouseCoopers survey of global CEO confidence, Lutnick appears to be one of the more than 25% who think the world economy is more likely to deteriorate in 2013.

Despite Lutnick's concerns, on January 23 the Republican-controlled House of Representatives did pass a bill that would allow the U.S. Treasury to borrow new money through mid-May. President Barack Obama has said he would not oppose the proposal if it reaches his desk, although he prefers a long-term debt ceiling increase.

Lutnick adds that to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, regulators need to actually address issues that caused it.

"What caused the credit crisis was just dumb lending. When you lend money to people who can't pay you back, you go broke."

Looking ahead to 2013, Lutnick says the biggest risk to global growth is the U.S. hitting the debt ceiling -- whether in the short- or long-term.

"Off the fiscal cliff we go. We (the U.S.) are irrational and we are silly... we are dopey."

Part of complete coverage on

January 23, 2013 -- Updated 1308 GMT (2108 HKT)

Global policymakers, leading thinkers and key entrepreneurs are gathering in Davos. CNN brings you the latest news, views and musings live.

January 25, 2013 -- Updated 1508 GMT (2308 HKT)

Free trade, transparency and a crackdown on tax cheats will be at the heart of Britain's G8 presidency, Prime Minister David Cameron told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday as he set out his vision for a more competitive Europe.

January 25, 2013 -- Updated 1559 GMT (2359 HKT)

Walk the halls of Davos and you're bound to bump into celebrities, heads of state and even princes and princesses.

January 25, 2013 -- Updated 1155 GMT (1955 HKT)

While Prime Minister David Cameron's speech this week -- voicing his intent to let the British people vote on whether to stay in the European Union -- has caused concern on the continent, the mayor of London says it's all part of democracy.

January 25, 2013 -- Updated 1119 GMT (1919 HKT)

A top European Union official says there's no need for Britain to make threats to leave the union in order to reform its membership.

January 24, 2013 -- Updated 1937 GMT (0337 HKT)

Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga says his country will not negotiate with al Qaeda-linked Somali militants who have threatened to kill Kenyan hostages unless Nairobi releases all Muslims charged with terrorism.

January 24, 2013 -- Updated 1904 GMT (0304 HKT)

LeWeb founder Loic Le Meur is looking to "digital hippies" as a potential theme for his next conference.

January 25, 2013 -- Updated 1347 GMT (2147 HKT)

The head of Airbus says the European aviation giant will take care to learn from its own mistakes -- and rival Boeing's -- ahead of the launch of its new widebody A350 aircraft.

January 23, 2013 -- Updated 1040 GMT (1840 HKT)

As extreme weather events cost the global economy billions each year, the "neglected" risk of climate change seems to be rising to the top of the agenda, Andrew Steer writes.

January 23, 2013 -- Updated 1342 GMT (2142 HKT)

Economic empowerment offers a win-win scenario for Saudi Arabia and its women, Mounira Jamjoon writes.

January 23, 2013 -- Updated 1154 GMT (1954 HKT)

The recession in Europe is entering its fifth year and unemployment doesn't look like it will be returning to normal levels anytime soon.

January 22, 2013 -- Updated 1324 GMT (2124 HKT)

What has been made clear by current events and financial upheavals since 2008 is that the global economy has become truly that -- global.

January 21, 2013 -- Updated 1458 GMT (2258 HKT)

On July 1, 2013 the 27-nation European Union will become 28. But is the Adriatic country ready to join Europe's elite club?

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Streak of days without inch of snow finally over

A relatively meager snowfall created huge headaches for commuters on Friday. CBS's Courtney Gousman capture this video on the Kennedy Expy. around 7:30 a.m. (Source: CBS Chicago)

By Peter Nickeas




Tribune reporter

10:59 a.m. CST, January 25, 2013

More than an inch of snow fell on Chicago today, finally ending a streak that began 335 days ago.

At 9:30 a.m., 1.1 inches of snow was recorded at O'Hare International Airport since midnight. That's the first day an inch or more of snow has fallen there since last February. The previous record was a stretch of 310 days set in 1940.

This morning's light snow also marks the latest it has gone during a winter before an inch of snow has fallen over a day.

Besides ending record streaks, the snow played havoc with the morning rush hour.

Snow started falling in the Chicago area around 4:45 a.m. Within half an hour, Illinois state police were reporting slick conditions on roads and had already responded to six minor accidents. Shortly after 6 a.m., a nine-car crash was reported near North Avenue on the Kennedy Expressway, but there were no reports of serious injuries.

By 7:15 a.m., state police said they had responded to about two dozen crashes on area expressways.

The snow was expected to end this morning.

“Something like this wouldn’t be newsworthy if it wasn’t for the fact it hasn’t snowed all year,” said Gino Izzi, another meteorologist for the weather service.

Still, the Chicago Department of Streets and Sanitation deployed almost 200 of its 284 plow trucks to clear streets of snow and apply salt to the roads.

"We’re going to be monitoring the weather but at this point we’re looking at snowfall at least through the rush hour," said Anne Sheahan, spokeswoman for Streets and Sanitation.

The next bout of snow is not expected until next week.

"We don’t have much of a chance of snow for the next five or six days," Izzi said.

pnickeas@tribune.com
Twitter: @peternickeas

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Violence flares on anniversary of Egypt uprising

CAIRO/ALEXANDRIA (Reuters) - Protesters clashed with police across Egypt on Friday on the second anniversary of the revolt that toppled Hosni Mubarak, taking to the streets against an elected Islamist president whose opponents say is trampling over the new democracy.

At least 61 civilians and 32 security personnel were hurt in violence in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez as police fired tear gas and protesters pelted them with stones, the Interior Ministry said.

Street battles also broke out in Ismaila, where the Muslim Brotherhood's political party offices were torched.

Thousands of opponents of Mursi and his Brotherhood allies massed in Cairo's Tahrir Square - the cradle of the uprising against Mubarak - to revive the demands of a revolution they say has been betrayed by Islamists.

The January 25 anniversary showcased the divide between the Islamists and their secular foes that is hindering President Mohamed Mursi's efforts to revive an economy in crisis and reverse a plunge in Egypt's currency by enticing back investors and tourists.

Inspired by Tunisia's popular uprising, Egypt's revolution spurred further revolts across the Arab world. But the sense of common purpose that united Egyptians two years ago has given way to internal strife that has only worsened and last month triggered lethal street battles.

Before dawn on Friday, police battled protesters who threw petrol bombs and firecrackers as they tried to approach a wall blocking access to government buildings near Tahrir Square.

Clouds of tear gas fired by police filled the air. At one point, riot police used one of the incendiaries thrown at them to set ablaze at least two tents erected by the youths, a Reuters witness said.

Clashes between stone-throwing youths and the police continued in streets around the square into the day. Ambulances ferried away a steady stream of casualties.

"Our revolution is continuing. We reject the domination of any party over this state. We say no to the Brotherhood state," Hamdeen Sabahy, a popular leftist leader, told Reuters.

There were similar scenes in Suez and Alexandria, where protesters and riot police skirmished near local government offices. Tear gas fouled the air and black smoke billowed from tyres set ablaze by youths.

Some protesters pledged to march to Mursi's Cairo palace.

The anniversary brought thousands of Mursi's opponents into the streets of other cities, including Port Said at the northern mouth of the Suez Canal and al-Mahalla al-Kubra in the Nile Delta.

The Brotherhood decided against mobilizing for the anniversary, wary of the scope for more conflict after violence in December that was stoked by Mursi's decision to fast-track an Islamist-tinged constitution rejected by his opponents.

"The Brotherhood is very concerned about escalation, that's why they have tried to dial down their role on January 25," said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center.

"It's definitely tense on the ground, but so far there hasn't been anything out of the ordinary or anything that really threatens to fundamentally alter the political situation."

In Tahrir Square, protesters echoed the chants of 2011's historic 18-day uprising. "The people want to bring down the regime," they chanted. "Leave! Leave! Leave!" chanted others as they marched towards the square.

"We are not here to celebrate but to force those in power to submit to the will of the people. Egypt now must never be like Egypt during Mubarak's rule," said Mohamed Fahmy, an activist.

BADIE CALLS FOR "PRACTICAL, SERIOUS COMPETITION"

With its eye firmly on forthcoming parliamentary elections, the Brotherhood marked the anniversary with a charity drive across the nation. It plans to deliver medical aid to one million people and distribute affordable basic foodstuffs.

Writing in Al-Ahram, Egypt's flagship state-run daily, Brotherhood leader Mohamed Badie said the country was in need of "practical, serious competition" to reform the corrupt state left by the Mubarak era.

"The differences of opinion and vision that Egypt is passing through is a characteristic at the core of transitions from dictatorship to democracy, and clearly expresses the variety of Egyptian culture," he wrote.

Still, Mursi faces discontent on multiple fronts.

His opponents say he and his group are seeking to dominate the post-Mubarak order. They accuse him of showing some of the autocratic impulses of the deposed leader by, for example, driving through the new constitution last month.

"I am taking part in today's marches to reject the warped constitution, the 'Brotherhoodisation' of the state, the attack on the rule of law, and the disregard of the president and his government for the demands for social justice," Amr Hamzawy, a prominent liberal politician, wrote on his Twitter feed.

The Brotherhood dismisses many of the criticisms as unfair fabrications of their rivals, accusing them of failing to respect the rules of the new democracy that put the Islamists in the driving seat by winning free elections.

Six months into office, Mursi is also being held responsible for an economic crisis caused by two years of turmoil. The Egyptian pound has sunk to record lows against the dollar.

SOURCES OF FRICTION ABOUND

Other sources of friction abound. Little has been done to reform brutal Mubarak-era security agencies. A spate of transport disasters on roads and railways neglected for years is feeding discontent as well. Activists are impatient for justice for the victims of violence over the last two years.

These include hardcore soccer fans, or ultras, who have been rallying in recent days to press for justice for 74 people killed in a soccer stadium disaster a year ago in Port Said after a match between local side al-Masry and Cairo's Al Ahly.

The parties that called for Friday's protests listed demands including a complete overhaul of the constitution.

Critics say the constitution, which was approved in a referendum, offers inadequate protection for human rights, grants the president too many privileges and fails to curb the power of a military establishment supreme in the Mubarak era.

Mursi's supporters say that enacting the constitution quickly was crucial to restoring stability desperately needed for economic recovery, and that the opposition is making the situation worse by perpetuating unrest.

(Additional reporting by Ashraf Fahim, Tom Perry, Marwa Awad and Shaimaa Fayed in Cairo and Yousri Mohamed in Ismailia; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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Wall Street advances despite Apple decline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow and S&P 500 advanced on Thursday, with the benchmark S&P index moving through the 1,500 level as solid economic data enabled investors to shrug off a steep decline in Apple shares.

Apple Inc dropped 10.1 percent to $462.17 after the technology giant missed Wall Street's revenue forecast for a third straight quarter as iPhone sales were poorer than expected, fanning fears its dominance of consumer electronics is slipping.

The drop wiped out roughly $50 billion in Apple's market capitalization to $435 billion, leaving the company vulnerable to losing its status as the most valuable U.S. company to second place ExxonMobil Corp, at $417 billion.

A trio of economic reports helped buoy the market, with data showing a decline in weekly jobless claims and an increase in manufacturing, while a gauge of future economic activity climbed.

"The S&P is up, that is a very important inflection point that a stock such as Apple can take a hit and the market can stay strong - that is because the U.S. economy is broadly getting stronger across the board," said Mike Binger, portfolio manager at Gradient Investment in Shoreview, Minnesota.

"Apple has been topping the headlines for the last three to four years. That phase is obviously past us and people are starting to talk about different stocks and they are gravitating towards different stocks."

The gains marked the first time the S&P 500 had risen above 1,500 since December 12, 2007 and put the index on pace for its seventh straight advance.

The advance for the S&P, and muted declines in the Nasdaq in spite of the decline in Apple, were viewed as a positive sign, as investors take encouragement from an improving global economy and move into stocks more closely tied to economic fortunes, such as industrials.

General Electric rose 1 percent to $22.16 and United Parcel Service gained 2 percent to $81.98. Of the 10 major S&P sectors, only technology, off 1.3 percent, was lower.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 85.42 points, or 0.62 percent, to 13,864.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 5.69 points, or 0.38 percent, to 1,500.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 5.84 points, or 0.19 percent, to 3,147.83.

The domestic data was in sync with those overseas showing growth in Chinese manufacturing accelerated to a two-year high this month and a buoyant Germany took the euro zone economy a step closer to recovery.

Apple's disappointing results drew a round of price-target cuts from brokerages. At least 14 brokerages, including Barclays Capital, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, cut their price target on the stock by $142 on average. Morgan Stanley removed the stock from its 'best ideas' list.

In contrast to Apple, Netflix Inc surprised Wall Street Wednesday with a quarterly profit after the video subscription service added nearly 4 million customers in the U.S. and abroad. Shares surged 36.9 percent to $141.36, its biggest percentage jump ever.

Diversified U.S. manufacturer 3M Co reported a 3.9 percent rise in profit, meeting expectations, on solid growth in sales of its wide array of products, which range from Post-It notes to films used in television screens. The shares edged up 0.2 percent to $99.66.

Corporate earnings have helped drive the recent stock market rally. Thomson Reuters data through early Thursday showed that of the 133 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings, 66.9 percent have exceeded expectations, above the 65 percent average over the past four quarters.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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NCAA announces problems with Miami investigation

CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) — The NCAA's probe of Miami's athletic compliance practices is ramping up again.

Only this time, the Hurricanes aren't exactly the subject of the inquiry.

In a bizarre twist, the college sports' governing body is being investigated after NCAA President Mark Emmert acknowledged on Wednesday "a very severe issue of improper conduct" by former investigators working the long, complex Miami case.

The NCAA said its investigation was based, at least in part, on information that it should not have had access to, the testimony of those who appeared under subpoena to be deposed in the bankruptcy case involving former Miami booster Nevin Shapiro, one of the most notorious Ponzi scheme architects in history.

The NCAA does not have subpoena power. Shapiro's attorney did, and used it — and apparently entered into some sort of contractual agreement with the NCAA, one that apparently either was not or should never have been approved.

"We cannot have the NCAA bringing forward an allegation ... that was collected by processes none of us could stand for," Emmert said. "We're going to move it as fast as possible, but we have to get this right."

Speaking Thursday from Providence, R.I. in a telephone interview, Shapiro's attorney, Maria Elena Perez, told The Associated Press that she has done nothing wrong.

"The dubious party is not me. What I have done is 150 percent above board," Perez said.

Perez said she could not divulge the nature of whatever her contract status with the NCAA, though said she is planning to release a statement in the coming days after meeting with her own attorney.

"I am a victim of the enforcement staff," said Perez, who is a Miami graduate. "Me."

The revelations Wednesday mean the notice of allegations against Miami — the NCAA's findings of wrongdoing, a document that was nearly completed and was expected to be released by the end of this week — will be delayed for at least a few more weeks, if not longer. The long-term ramifications could be more damning for the NCAA, especially if the outside investigator they have commissioned to look into the mess finds more problems.

"As we have done since the beginning, we will continue to work with the NCAA and now with their outside investigator hoping for a swift resolution of the investigation and our case," Miami President Donna Shalala said.

Emmert said two depositions are involved in this allegation of improper conduct by former enforcement-office staffers. One of those two depositions was given Dec. 19, 2011, by former Miami equipment-room staffer Sean Allen — who has been linked to Shapiro and many of the allegations that he made against the university.

Among the questions Allen was asked in that deposition:

— "Did you ever witness Mr. Shapiro paying any money to any University of Miami football or basketball players?"

— "Would it be fair to say that Mr. Shapiro did, in fact, confer various financial benefits on the University of Miami Athletic Program and its players?"

— "Did you ever overhear any of the coaches or any other staff for the University of Miami providing Mr. Shapiro with inside information regarding, you know, the condition of any particular athlete for the purposes of Mr. Shapiro's gambling?"

It's unknown which of Allen's answers caught the NCAA investigators' attention.

What is known publicly now, and has been suspected by some for months, is that those investigators never should have known those questions were asked.

"How in the world can you get this far without it being recognized that this was an inappropriate way to proceed?" Emmert asked.

That's the question that the NCAA wants answered, and fast.

Emmert spoke angrily at times during a half-hour conference call to discuss the findings, in which he revealed that he briefed the NCAA's executive committee and the Division I board presidents with some information about the Miami matter. He said he developed a better understanding of what went on in the days that followed, which led to the hiring of Kenneth L. Wainstein of the firm Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP to conduct the external review of what happened.

Wainstein, Emmert said, will begin his probe on Thursday, with the NCAA hoping that he can finish within two weeks.

"We want to make sure that any evidence that's brought forward is appropriately collected and it has the integrity that we expect and demand," Emmert said.

It was part of a stunning day for Hurricane athletics: The 25th-ranked men's basketball team routed No. 1 Duke later Wednesday, 90-63.

Emmert said the NCAA was trying to find out why part of the investigation was based on depositions specific to the bankruptcy case against Shapiro, who will have to repay $82.7 million to his victims as part of his sentence. And the timing of this also is curious. Several people who were to be named in the NCAA's notice of allegations against Miami have been told that the document was in the final stages of preparation — and one person who spoke with the AP said at least one person who was to face a charge of wrongdoing was told the letter was scheduled for delivery to Miami on Tuesday.

Now it's anyone's guess when that will happen.

Emmert said the NCAA learned of the alleged misconduct, in part, through legal bills presented by Shapiro's attorney for work that was not properly approved by the organization's general counsel's office.

"One of the questions that has to be answered, unequivocally, is what was the nature of that contractual arrangement and what was all the activity that that individual was involved with," Emmert said. "There is some uncertainty about all of that and it's one of the first orders of business for the firm that we've hired to investigate."

The Hurricanes' athletic compliance practices have been probed by the NCAA for nearly two years. Allegations of wrongdoing involving Miami's football and men's basketball programs became widely known in August 2011 when Yahoo Sports published accusations brought by Shapiro, who is serving a 20-year term in federal prison for masterminding a $930 million Ponzi scheme.

Miami has self-imposed two football postseason bans in response to the investigation. The Hurricanes also would have played in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game this past season, meaning they could have qualified for the Orange Bowl.

"In my two-and-a-half years I've certainly never seen anything like this, and don't want to see it again," Emmert said.

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Girl: 'My sister's on fire'

3 children were injured, 1 critically after a fire started inside their apartment. (WGN - Chicago)

A 4-year-old girl was in critical condition this morning after she was pulled from a burning bed in her South Side home by neighbors who heard the desperate screams of her older sister, officials said.

"She came downstairs and was knocking on everyone's door," said Sandra Gray. "She was screaming, 'My sister's on fire.' "

Gray said she and her husband and a neighbor ran up the stairs of the four-flat and saw the bottom of a bunk bed on fire. "All I saw was that the bed was on fire and the baby was burned," Gray said. "You could see the bed on fire."

She said the older sister, 16, tried to pull the girl from the bed and burned her hands. Gray's husband and the neighbor finally put the fire out with water as firefighters and paramedics arrived, she said.

Gray said the girl was conscious but badly burned.

Clyde Harden, who rushed up with Gray, said he grabbed hold of the little girl and helped put out the fire. “I believe that she was sheltered by God already,” he told reporters on the scene. “Somebody was there for her.”

The girls, along with a 10-year-old brother, were taken to Comer Children's Hospital. The young girl was listed in critical condition and the other two were in good condition, according to fire officials.

The 4-year-old remained in critical condition today with burns to more than 50 percent of her body, according to Chicago Fire Department spokesman Larry Langford.

The girl was on a breathing tube, she said. “She’s intubated."

Gray said the teenager told her the children were alone in their apartment in the 1000 block of West 76th Street Wednesday evening. The 16-year-old said she was in a back bedroom doing her homework when the boy ran to her room around 7:15 p.m.

"The 10-year-old ran back there to tell her [their sister] was on fire," Gray said.

Though an official cause has not been determined, authorities are looking into the possibility that someone inside the home had been playing with a lighter or matches, Langford said.

Police News Affairs Officer Jose Estrada said the blaze does not appear to be suspicious. “It looks like it may have been accidentally started,’’ he said.

csadovi@tribune.com

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North Korea to target U.S. with nuclear, rocket tests

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Thursday it would carry out further rocket launches and a nuclear test that would target the United States, dramatically stepping up its threats against a country it called its "sworn enemy".

The announcement by the country's top military body came a day after the U.N. Security Council agreed to a U.S.-backed resolution to censure and sanction North Korea for a rocket launch in December that breached U.N. rules.

North Korea is not believed to have the technology to deliver a nuclear warhead capable of hitting the continental United States, although its December launch showed it had the capacity to deliver a rocket that could travel 10,000 km (6,200 miles), potentially putting San Francisco in range, according to an intelligence assessment by South Korea.

"We are not disguising the fact that the various satellites and long-range rockets that we will fire and the high-level nuclear test we will carry out are targeted at the United States," North Korea's National Defence Commission said, according to state news agency KCNA.

North Korea is believed by South Korea and other observers to be "technically ready" for a third nuclear test, and the decision to go ahead rests with leader Kim Jong-un, who pressed ahead with the December rocket launch in defiance of the U.N. sanctions.

China, the one major diplomatic ally of the isolated and impoverished North, agreed to the U.S.-backed resolution and it also supported resolutions in 2006 and 2009 after Pyongyang's two earlier nuclear tests.

Thursday's statement by North Korea represents a huge challenge to Beijing as it undergoes a leadership transition, with Xi Jinping due to take office in March.

China's Foreign Ministry called for calm and restraint and a return to six-party talks, but effectively singled out North Korea, urging the "relevant party" not to take any steps that would raise tensions.

"We hope the relevant party can remain calm and act and speak in a cautious and prudent way and not take any steps which may further worsen the situation," ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters at a regular press briefing.

North Korea has rejected proposals to restart the talks aimed at reining in its nuclear capacity. The United States, China, Russia, Japan and the two Koreas are the six parties involved.

"After all these years and numerous rounds of six-party talks we can see that China's influence over North Korea is actually very limited. All China can do is try to persuade them not to carry out their threats," said Cai Jian, an expert on Korea at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Analysts said the North could test as early as February as South Korea prepares to install a new, untested president or that it could choose to stage a nuclear explosion to coincide with former ruler Kim Jong-il's Feb 16 birthday.

"North Korea will have felt betrayed by China for agreeing to the latest U.N. resolution and they might be targeting (China) as well (with this statement)," said Lee Seung-yeol, senior research fellow at Ewha Institute of Unification Studies in Seoul.

U.S. URGES NO TEST

Washington urged North Korea not to proceed with a third test just as the North's statement was published on Thursday.

"Whether North Korea tests or not is up to North Korea," Glyn Davies, the top U.S. envoy for North Korean diplomacy, said in the South Korean capital of Seoul.

"We hope they don't do it. We call on them not to do it," Davies said after a meeting with South Korean officials. "This is not a moment to increase tensions on the Korean peninsula."

The North was banned from developing missile and nuclear technology under sanctions dating from its 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests.

A South Korean military official said the concern now is that Pyongyang could undertake a third nuclear test using highly enriched uranium for the first time, opening a second path to a bomb.

North Korea's 2006 nuclear test using plutonium produced a puny yield equivalent to one kiloton of TNT - compared with 13-18 kilotons for the Hiroshima bomb - and U.S. intelligence estimates put the 2009 test's yield at roughly two kilotons

North Korea is estimated to have enough fissile material for about a dozen plutonium warheads, although estimates vary, and intelligence reports suggest that it has been enriching uranium to supplement that stock and give it a second path to the bomb.

According to estimates from the Institute for Science and International Security from late 2012, North Korea could have enough weapons grade uranium for 21-32 nuclear weapons by 2016 if it used one centrifuge at its Yongbyon nuclear plant to enrich uranium to weapons grade.

North Korea has not yet mastered the technology needed to make a nuclear warhead small enough for an intercontinental missile, most observers say, and needs to develop the capacity to shield any warhead from re-entry into the earth's atmosphere.

North Korea gave no time-frame for the coming test and often employs harsh rhetoric in response to U.N. and U.S. actions that it sees as hostile.

The bellicose statement on Thursday appeared to dent any remaining hopes that Kim Jong-un, believed to be 30 years old, would pursue a different path from his father, Kim Jong-il, who oversaw the country's military and nuclear programs.

The older Kim died in December 2011.

"The UNSC (Security Council) resolution masterminded by the U.S. has brought its hostile policy towards the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (North Korea) to its most dangerous stage," the commission was quoted as saying.

(Additional reporting by Christine Kim in SEOUL, Ben Blanchard and Sui-Lee Wee in Beijing; Writing by David Chance; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Ron Popeski)

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IBM's outlook lifts Dow, Nasdaq amid tech rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks edged higher on Wednesday as IBM and other tech companies continued a trend of results that beat Wall Street's expectations and propelled the market to a five-day advance.

Internet search company Google Inc added to the advance, rising 5.1 percent to $738.65 a day after Google reported its core business outpaced expectations. Revenue was also higher than expected.

International Business Machines Corp late Tuesday forecast better-than-anticipated 2013 results and also posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that beat expectations. The results helped to allay concerns about the tech sector after Intel Corp gave a weak outlook last week. IBM, the world's largest technology services company, rose 3.8 percent to $203.57.

"Tech companies are really shattering expectations, which is obviously helping markets. There doesn't seem to be an end to this rally," said Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital in New York.

But gains were limited in the S&P 500 a day after it closed at a level not seen since December 2007. Many investors were also holding off to see earnings from Apple Inc , the most valuable U.S. company which was due to report after the market closes.

McDonald's edged higher 0.2 percent to $93.11 after reporting a rise in fourth-quarter earnings, lifted by an increase in same-store sales. United Tech's earnings fell from the prior year, hurt by large restructuring charges. Shares edged up at $87.91.

On the downside, Coach Inc slumped 15 percent to $51.40 as the S&P's biggest percentage loser after reporting sales that missed expectations.

After the market closes, investors will scour Apple's results for signs the tech giant can continue to grow at an accelerated pace. The stock has been pressured recently by questions raised about demand for Apple's prospects. The stock has fallen 5 percent since the start of the year, compared with gains of 4.6 percent in the S&P 500. It rose 0.4 percent to $507.04 on Wednesday.

"If Apple comes out with a blockbuster number, that would reinforce the argument that stocks are poised to do well in the first part of 2013," Schoenberger said.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 55.48 points, or 0.40 percent, at 13,767.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 0.06 points, or 0.00 percent, at 1,492.62. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 10.89 points, or 0.35 percent, at 3,154.06.

Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average hit five-year closing highs on Tuesday, with recent gains largely fueled by a strong start to the earning season.

According to the latest Thomson Reuters data, of the 74 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, 62.2 percent have topped expectations, roughly even with the 62 percent average since 1994, but below the 65 percent average over the past four quarters.

Overall, S&P 500 fourth-quarter earnings rose 2.6 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data. That estimate is above the 1.9 percent forecast from the start of earnings season, but well below the 9.9 percent fourth-quarter earnings forecast from October 1, the data showed.

Republican leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives aim on Wednesday to pass a bill to extend the U.S. debt limit by nearly four months, to May 19. The White House welcomed the move, saying it would remove uncertainty about the issue.

The debt limit issue has hung over the market for weeks, with many investors worried that if no deal is reached to raise the limit, it could have a negative impact on the economy.

(Editing by W Simon and Kenneth Barry)

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APNewsBreak: UCI's McQuaid replaced on IOC panel

LONDON (AP) — The head of cycling's governing body has been replaced on a key International Olympic Committee panel as he deals with the fallout from the Lance Armstrong doping scandal.

International Cycling Union President Pat McQuaid said Wednesday he was too busy to attend all the meetings of the Olympic commission evaluating bids for the 2020 Summer Games.

"It's quite simple," McQuaid told The Associated Press. "I have too much going on and I can't afford to be spending two weeks away from the office in March."

McQuaid, an IOC member from Ireland, was appointed to the 10-person commission in September as the representative of the Association of Summer Olympic International Federations. He has been replaced by Patrick Baumann, a Swiss IOC member and secretary general of international basketball federation FIBA.

"He couldn't meet the schedule and we had to find someone else," IOC vice president Craig Reedie, who chairs the evaluation commission, told the AP. "That's all. There's nothing sensitive about it in any way."

The IOC panel is assessing the 2020 bids from Madrid, Tokyo and Istanbul. The commission will pay four-day visits to each city in March and compile a detailed report ahead of a special briefing with the candidates in July in Lausanne, Switzerland. The IOC will choose the host city Sept. 7 in Buenos Aires.

McQuaid told the IOC he would be unable to go on the visits to all three cities.

"I contacted ASOIF, because I was their representative, and suggested that they find a replacement," McQuaid said.

It's not the only position McQuaid has relinquished in recent months. He lost his spots on the World Anti-Doping Agency executive committee and foundation board at the end of the year. He was replaced by Ugur Erdener of Turkey.

McQuaid and former UCI president Hein Verbruggen have come under scrutiny in the wake of the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency report that detailed systematic doping by Armstrong and his teams. Armstrong has been stripped of his seven Tour de France titles and banned from sports for life.

The report included allegations by Armstrong's former teammates that he paid the UCI $125,000 to cover up a positive test from the 2001 Tour of Switzerland. While admitting to doping in his interview last week with Oprah Winfrey, Armstrong confirmed making a donation to the UCI but denied the 2001 positive test and any cover up.

"That story isn't true. There was no positive test. No paying off of the lab. The UCI did not make that go away. I'm no fan of the UCI," Armstrong told Winfrey.

McQuaid and Verbruggen both said the interview vindicated them and the UCI of any improper collusion with Armstrong. However, WADA director general David Howman said Armstrong's financial donation to UCI was inappropriate and the matter needs to be clarified.

The UCI has set up an independent commission to investigate the doping scandal and the federation's links with Armstrong. McQuaid and Verbruggen are expected to meet with the three-member commission during its scheduled April 9-26 hearing in London.

Other members of the 2020 Olympic evaluation commission include IOC members Guy Drut of France, Frank Fredericks of Namibia, Nat Indrapana of Thailand and Claudia Bokel of Germany; El Salvador Olympic committee head Eduardo Palomo; Paralympics representative Andrew Parsons of Brazil; and IOC executive director Gilbert Felli.

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AP Sports Writer Graham Dunbar in Geneva contributed to this report.

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2013 could be 'climate game-changer'

An ice sculpture entitled 'Minimum Monument' by Brazilian artist Nele Azevedo outside Berlin's Concert Hall, September 2, 2009.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• The "neglected" risk of climate change seems to be rising to the top of leaders' agendas


• Extreme weather events are costing the global economy billions of dollars each year


• Gas can be an important bridge to a lower carbon future but it's not the answer


• More investment in renewable energy is needed, with fewer risks

Editor's note: Andrew Steer is President and CEO of the World Resources Institute, a think tank that works with governments, businesses and civil society to find sustainable solutions to environmental and development challenges.

(CNN) -- As leaders gather for the World Economic Forum in Davos, signs of economic hope are upon us. The global economy is on the mend. Worldwide, the middle class is expanding by an estimated 100 million per year. And the quality of life for millions in Asia and Africa is growing at an unprecedented pace.

Threats abound, of course. One neglected risk -- climate change -- appears to at last be rising to the top of agendas in business and political circles. When the World Economic Forum recently asked 1,000 leaders from industry, government, academia, and civil society to rank risks over the coming decade for the Global Risks 2013 report, climate change was in the top three. And in his second inaugural address, President Obama identified climate change as a major priority for his Administration.

Andrew Steer

For good reason: last year was the hottest year on record for the continental United States, and records for extreme weather events were broken around the world. We are seeing more droughts, wildfires, and rising seas. The current U.S. drought will wipe out approximately 1% of the U.S. GDP and is on course to be the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Damage from Hurricane Sandy will cost another 0.5% of GDP. And a recent study found that the cost of climate change is about $1.2 trillion per year globally, or 1.6% of global GDP.

Shifting to low-carbon energy sources is critical to mitigating climate change's impacts. Today's global energy mix is changing rapidly, but is it heading in the right direction?

Coal is the greatest driver of carbon dioxide emissions from energy, accounting for more than 40% of the total worldwide. Although coal demand is falling in the United States -- with 55 coal-powered plants closed in the past year -- it's growing globally. The World Resources Institute (WRI) recently identified 1,200 proposed new coal plants around the world. And last year, the United States hit a record-high level of coal exports—arguably transferring U.S. emissions abroad.

Meanwhile, shale gas is booming. Production in the United States has increased nearly tenfold since 2005, and China, India, Argentina, and many others have huge potential reserves. This development can be an economic blessing in many regions, and, because carbon emissions of shale gas are roughly half those of coal, it can help us get onto a lower carbon growth path.

However, while gas is an important bridge to a low carbon future—and can be a component of such a future—it can't get us fully to where we need to be. Greenhouse gas emissions in industrial countries need to fall by 80-90% by 2050 to prevent climate change's most disastrous impacts. And there is evidence that gas is crowding out renewables.

Renewable energy -- especially solar and wind power -- are clear winners when it comes to reducing emissions. Unfortunately, despite falling prices, the financial markets remain largely risk-averse. Many investors are less willing to finance renewable power. As a result of this mindset, along with policy uncertainty and the proliferation of low-cost gas, renewable energy investment dropped 11%, to $268 billion, last year.

What do we need to get on track?

Incentivizing renewable energy investment

Currently, more than 100 countries have renewable energy targets, more than 40 developing nations have introduced feed-in tariffs, and countries from Saudi Arabia to South Africa are making big bets on renewables as a growth market. Many countries are also exploring carbon-trading markets, including the EU, South Korea, and Australia. This year, China launched pilot trading projects in five cities and two provinces, with a goal of a national program by 2015.

Removing market barriers

Despite growing demand for renewable energy from many companies, this demand often remains unmet due to numerous regulatory, financial, and psychological barriers in the marketplace.

In an effort to address these, WRI just launched the Green Power Market Development Group in India, bringing together industry, government, and NGOs to build critical support for renewable energy markets. A dozen major companies from a variety of sectors—like Infosys, ACC, Cognizant, IBM, WIPRO, and others— have joined the initiative. This type of government-industry-utility partnership, built upon highly successful models elsewhere, can spur expanded clean energy development. It will be highlighted in Davos this week at meetings of the Green Growth Action Alliance (G2A2).

De-risking investments

For technical, policy, and financial reasons, risks are often higher for renewables than fossil-based energy. Addressing these risks is the big remaining task to bring about the needed energy transformation. Some new funding mechanisms are emerging that can help reduce risk and thus leverage large sums of financing. For example, the Green Climate Fund could, if well-designed, be an important venue to raise funds and drive additional investments from capital markets. Likewise, multi-lateral development banks' recent $175 billion commitment to sustainable transport could help leverage more funds from the private and public sectors.

Some forward-looking companies are seeking to create internal incentives for green investments. For example, companies like Unilever, Johnson & Johnson, and UPS have been taking actions to reduce internal hurdle rates and shift strategic thinking to the longer-term horizons that many green strategies need.

Davos is exactly the type of venue for finding solutions to such issues, which requires leadership and coalition-building from the private and public sectors. For example, the the G2A2, an alliance of CEOs committed to addressing climate and environmental risks, will launch the Green Investment Report with precisely the goal of "unlocking finance for green growth".

Depending on what happens at Davos—and other forums and meetings like it throughout the year—2013 could just be a game-changer.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Andrew Steer.

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